Downstream Demand tseem tsis tau pib qhov Tsawg Hauv Cov Paj Rwb Nqe Shock - Tuam Tshoj Paj Rwb Kev Lag Luam Txhua Lub Limtiam (Lub Yim Hli 12-16, 2024)

[Cov ntsiab lus] Cov nqi paj rwb hauv tsev lossis tseem yuav poob qis. Lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws ntawm kev lag luam textile tau los txog, tab sis qhov kev thov tiag tiag tseem tsis tau tshwm sim, qhov tshwm sim ntawm cov lag luam textile qhib tseem tab tom poob qis, thiab tus nqi ntawm cov paj rwb tseem poob qis. Tam sim no, kev loj hlob ntawm cov paj rwb tshiab hauv tsev yog qhov zoo, kev tsim khoom nce yuav tsum nyob twj ywm tsis hloov thiab lub sijhawm teev npe yuav ntxov dua li xyoo tas los. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cov paj rwb ntshuam zawv zawg se quota yuav raug muab tawm sai sai, thiab kev poob qis ntawm cov paj rwb hauv tsev yuav tsis txo qis.

I. Lub lim tiam no tus nqi tshuaj xyuas
Los ntawm Lub Yim Hli 12 txog 16, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm Zhengzhou paj rwb yav tom ntej daim ntawv cog lus tseem ceeb yog 13,480 yuan / ton, nqis 192 yuan / ton ntawm lub lim tiam dhau los, nqis 1.4%; Lub teb chaws paj rwb Nqe B Performance index, uas sawv cev rau tus nqi lag luam ntawm tus qauv qib lint hauv av loj, nruab nrab 14,784 yuan / ton, nqis 290 yuan / ton ntawm lub lim tiam dhau los, lossis 1.9%. New York paj rwb yav tom ntej daim ntawv cog lus tseem ceeb hais txog tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm 67.7 xees / phaus, nce 0.03 xees / phaus los ntawm lub lim tiam dhau los, feem ntau tiaj tus; Tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov paj rwb thoob ntiaj teb ntsuas (M) sawv cev rau tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov paj rwb tuaj txawv teb chaws hauv Tuam Tshoj qhov chaw nres nkoj tseem ceeb yog 76.32 xees / phaus, nce 0.5 xees / phaus los ntawm lub lim tiam dhau los, thiab tus nqi ntshuam ntawm RMB 13,211 yuan / ton ( xam los ntawm 1% tariff, tsis suav nrog Hong Kong miscellany thiab freight), nce 88 yuan / tuj los ntawm yav dhau los lub lim tiam, nce ntawm 0.7%. Tus nqi paj rwb hauv tsev yog 1573 yuan / ton siab dua tus nqi paj rwb thoob ntiaj teb, uas yog 378 yuan / ton nqaim dua li lub lim tiam dhau los. Tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm domestic C32S dav dav comb ntshiab paj rwb xov yog 21,758 yuan / tuj, nqis 147 yuan / tuj los ntawm lub lim tiam dhau los. Tus nqi ntawm cov xov paj yog 22222 yuan / ton, uas yog tib yam li lub lim tiam dhau los. Tus nqi ntawm polyester staple fiber ntau yog 7488 yuan / tuj, nqis 64 yuan / tuj los ntawm lub lim tiam dhau los.

1

Qhov thib ob, qhov ze-lub sij hawm kev lag luam outlook
(1) Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb
Cov yam ntxwv zoo tau tshwm sim, paj rwb nqi lossis yuav ruaj khov. Tsoomfwv Meskas Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Liaj Ua Teb Lub Yim Hli 2024 / 2024 / 25, US Department of Agriculture muab cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau kwv yees kwv yees US paj rwb ntau lawm ntawm 3.29 lab tons hauv 2024/25, qhov txo qis ntawm 410,000 tons ntawm lub hli dhau los, feem ntau yog vim tsis ntev los no drought drought nyob rau hauv US paj rwb tsim cheeb tsam. Lub USDA Drought Monitor tau tshaj tawm tias kwv yees li 22 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov paj rwb tsim cov chaw muaj kev puas tsuaj rau lub lim tiam no, nce ntawm 13 feem pua ​​​​ntawm lub lim tiam ua ntej. Raws li kev txheeb cais los ntawm Indian Ministry of Agriculture, txij li Lub Yim Hli 8, 2024/25 Is Nrias teb thaj chaw cog paj paj yog 166 lab mu, nqis 8.9% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab kev tsim khoom tau kwv yees yuav txo los ntawm 370,000 tons xyoo-rau- xyoo. Lub caij no, US Department of Commerce cov ntaub ntawv tau qhia tias US khw muag khoom noj tau nce 1 feem pua ​​​​hauv Lub Xya Hli los ntawm lub hli dhau los, qhov siab tshaj plaws txij li Lub Ob Hlis 2023, ua rau kev lag luam tsis tshua muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog Asmeskas kev lag luam, muab kev txhawb nqa rau kev txhim kho kev xav hauv khw muag khoom. Raws li Tebchaws Meskas Cov Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Yav Tom Ntej Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam, raws li lub Yim Hli 6, ICE paj rwb yav tom ntej kev lag luam (cov neeg tsim khoom, cov neeg lag luam, cov txheej txheem) net ntev txoj hauj lwm 1156, thawj zaug txij li xyoo 2019 los tig net, txhais tau tias cov nyiaj txiag kev lag luam ntseeg tias cov paj rwb thoob ntiaj teb. tus nqi lossis tau nkag mus rau qhov ntsuas qis qis. Ua ke nrog cov xwm txheej saum toj no, cov paj rwb thoob ntiaj teb cov nqi yuav tsum ruaj khov.
(2) Kev lag luam hauv tsev
Kev thov qis qis tsis pom qhov pib, cov paj rwb cov nqi txuas ntxiv hloov mus rau theem qis. Raws li National Bureau of Statistics, cov khw muag khoom ntawm cov khaub ncaws, khau, kaus mom thiab cov khoom siv textile hauv Suav teb thaum Lub Xya Hli yog 93.6 billion yuan, nqis 5.2% xyoo rau xyoo; Cov ntaub ntawv kev lis kev cai tau pom tias Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv textile thiab tsoos tsho xa tawm thaum Lub Xya Hli yog 26.8 billion US dollars, nqis 0.5% xyoo rau xyoo. Txij li thaum Lub Yim Hli, kev lag luam hauv tsev tau tos ntsoov rau "kub cuaj nyiaj kaum" lub caij xav tau ib txwm muaj, tab sis kev txiav txim tseem tsis tau qhia txog kev txhim kho. Raws li lub teb chaws paj rwb kev lag luam kev soj ntsuam xyuas system, nyob rau hauv thaum ntxov Lub yim hli ntuj yog ib tug piv txwv daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas ntawm textile lag luam los qhib qhov tshwm sim ntawm 73.6%, nqis 0.8 feem pua ​​cov ntsiab lus los ntawm lub hli dhau los, tsuas yog ib tug tib neeg coarse yarn ntau yam qhia tej yam tshwm sim ntawm warming, lub davhlau ya nyob twg. kev ua lag luam sawv-thiab-pom huab cua tseem hnyav, lub lim tiam no cov paj rwb hauv tsev cov nqi txuas ntxiv poob. Tam sim no, kev loj hlob ntawm paj rwb zoo dua, nws xav tias lub sijhawm sau cov paj rwb yuav ntxov dua li xyoo tas los, thiab cov paj rwb ntshuam zawv zawg se quota tab tom yuav tawm, uas yuav ua rau muaj kev ntxhov siab ntxiv rau cov paj rwb hauv tsev, thiab qhov muaj peev xwm txuas ntxiv kev poob qis yog ntau dua.

 


Post lub sij hawm: Aug-19-2024